Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.015297 0.017307 0.019498 0.022067 0.025001 0.028249 0.032125
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.012307 0.015083 0.018377 0.022585 0.027835 0.034193 0.042512
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.010361 0.013384 0.017175 0.022302 0.029093 0.037830 0.050007
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.009012 0.012148 0.016263 0.022095 0.030208 0.041184 0.057310
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007993 0.011174 0.015514 0.021917 0.031214 0.044356 0.064582
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007397 0.010689 0.015339 0.022458 0.033207 0.049028 0.074444
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006692 0.009955 0.014712 0.022237 0.034003 0.051959 0.081946
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006337 0.009694 0.014734 0.022962 0.036267 0.057297 0.093767
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005686 0.008911 0.013880 0.022219 0.036106 0.058745 0.099337
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005208 0.008350 0.013313 0.021863 0.036510 0.061107 0.106649
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004695 0.007687 0.012520 0.021046 0.036038 0.061911 0.111262
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004539 0.007596 0.012653 0.021802 0.038336 0.067708 0.125537
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004350 0.007439 0.012670 0.022377 0.040407 0.073382 0.140413
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004163 0.007270 0.012654 0.022892 0.042423 0.079177 0.156274
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003871 0.006889 0.012227 0.022605 0.042891 0.082066 0.166632
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003618 0.006559 0.011862 0.022395 0.043474 0.085219 0.177886
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003394 0.006260 0.011530 0.022215 0.044090 0.088482 0.189748
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003283 0.006165 0.011569 0.022764 0.046231 0.095080 0.209730
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003086 0.005890 0.011240 0.022540 0.046737 0.098277 0.222411
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003014 0.005853 0.011374 0.023275 0.049350 0.106283 0.247288
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002786 0.005488 0.010822 0.022521 0.048642 0.106859 0.254437
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002618 0.005230 0.010470 0.022160 0.048768 0.109325 0.266514
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002416 0.004890 0.009924 0.021331 0.047755 0.109045 0.271627